The FTSE 100 has climbed slightly over 7% in 2024. As returns go, that’s not precisely shabby. However it does pale compared to a number of of its members.

One instance is growth-focused Scottish Mortgage Funding Belief (LSE: SMT). As I sort, the tech-focused fund has delivered thrice the achieve of the index. Most of this outperformance has come within the final couple of months too.

Pretty much as good as that is, I’m starting to wonder if the time has come for me to promote considered one of my greatest Shares and Shares ISA holdings.

Causes to be cautious

My chief concern is simply how bullish buyers throughout the pond appear to be following the result of November’s election.

Donald Trump’s win — and the probability that he’ll do every part in his energy to guard and enhance the income of US-listed shares — have pushed up valuations to eye-watering ranges. Many of those are owned by the Baillie Gifford-managed belief and embrace the standard suspects: Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla and Meta Platforms.

There’s little doubt that these corporations have executed brilliantly to this point. However that brilliance now seems to be to be firmly mirrored of their shares (after which some).

It appears I’m not the one one to marvel if the ‘Trump bounce’ might have gotten out of hand. Earlier this month, analysts at funding financial institution Stifel downgraded Scottish Mortgage on fears that “many of these growth company stories are now starting to be priced for a perfect environment”.

The presence of 49 personal corporations within the portfolio is one other danger to think about. These are arduous to worth at one of the best of occasions, making them anathema to buyers on the worst of occasions. Will 2025 be an instance of the latter?

Lengthy-term winner

On a extra constructive be aware, I reckon these unlisted holdings are additionally one of many belief’s key sights. By ‘getting in early’, house owners of Scottish Mortgage might do very properly certainly if/when companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX go public. Let’s not overlook that the fund was an early backer of his aforementioned electrical automotive firm. And that turned out to be a reasonably good name!

The belief can also be properly diversified by geography with ‘just’ 55% of its portfolio invested in North America. Granted, that also received’t make for a cushty experience if (and that’s a giant ‘if’) we get the mom of all market crashes in 2025. However having publicity to future progress stars in Europe and Asia would possibly cushion the belief to some extent if the world’s greatest financial system begins to stutter.

As a long-term-focused Idiot, I can’t overlook the belief’s observe report both. Little question the final three years have been painful. Even so, Scottish Mortgage continues to be up a really respectable 85% in 5 years.

In sharp distinction, the FTSE 100 has climbed a paltry 13% since December 2019.

I’m attempting to find worth

Taking the above into consideration, I’ve determined to proceed monitoring issues for now. If I get the sense that expectations have turn out to be indifferent from actuality and earnings stories from these tech titans threaten to disappoint, I’ll rethink banking some revenue.

Within the meantime, I plan to search for high-quality shares in comparatively ‘cheap’ components of the world. Our very personal UK market looks as if an incredible place to start out.