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In response to information launched by Interactive Investor about its shoppers’ preferences, essentially the most purchased FTSE 100 inventory is Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.). That is primarily based on trades between 1 January and 25 February, earlier than the housebuilder introduced its newest outcomes.
On 27 February, the group reported 2024 completions (excluding joint ventures) of 9,972, in comparison with 10,356 in 2023. In 2025, it expects to promote 10,400-10,800 houses.
It sounds as if the housing market may be on the flip. However what’s a good worth for the corporate’s shares? Let’s have a look.
An outdated favorite
Probably the most standard strategies for assessing whether or not a inventory presents good worth is to make use of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. A low quantity might be proof of an undervalued firm.
Based mostly on a present (10 March) share price of 114p – and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 of 8.4p — Taylor Wimpey’s presently buying and selling on a a number of of 13.6 instances its historic earnings.
Is that this low cost? At first look, it’s onerous to inform.
Current historical past
The desk under reveals its EPS for the previous 5 years and its share price at shut of buying and selling on the day its annual outcomes had been introduced. This information’s then used to calculated the P/E ratio on the time.
| Yr | Adjusted EPS (pence) | Share price on outcomes day (pence) | P/E ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6.5 | 180.5 | 27.8 |
| 2021 | 18.0 | 138.6 | 7.7 |
| 2022 | 19.8 | 116.8 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | 9.9 | 133.9 | 13.5 |
| 2024 | 8.4 | 112.0 | 13.3 |
The result is a variety of 5.9-27.8. Apply this to the corporate’s 2024 earnings and it might be argued {that a} honest price for its shares is anyplace between 50p and 234p.
Such a big variation isn’t notably helpful, though it’s price noting that the group’s shares are presently buying and selling 20% under the mid-point.
Future progress
Trying additional forward, the consensus forecast of analysts is for EPS of 8.99p (2025), 10.58p (2026), and 12.07p (2027). This suggests a formidable three-year common annual progress price in earnings of 12.1%.
Nevertheless, assuming this continued for the foreseeable future, it will be 2032 earlier than EPS exceeded these of 2022. Because of rising constructing prices, the business’s now not capable of command the margins that it did beforehand. For instance, in 2024, Taylor Wimpey’s working margin was 12.2%, in comparison with 20.9% in 2022.
Even when completions return to earlier ranges, I feel it would take rather a lot longer for margins to recuperate, if ever. Certainly, when asserting the corporate’s 2024 outcomes, its chief govt warned that prices are nonetheless rising.
However assuming the 2027 forecast proves to be correct, the ahead earnings a number of drops under 10. The common for the FTSE 100’s round 15. On this foundation, the shares seem enticing.
One other funding appraisal method
Lastly, let’s take a look at discounted future money flows. Based mostly on my calculations, this produces a good worth for the corporate of £6.72bn. That is equal to 191p a share, a 66% premium to right now’s share price. It was final at this stage in April 2021.
Though this method is standard with many traders, together with billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the outcomes are extremely delicate to the assumptions being made. However even permitting for a big margin of error, the result does additional help the concept that Taylor Wimpey’s shares are undervalued in the intervening time, even when it’s troublesome to find out exactly by how a lot.
That’s why long-term traders could need to take into account including the inventory to their portfolios.