The Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) share price rising in 2025 appeared just like the reward long-suffering shareholders had been ready for.

Apart from these of us who had been considering of possibly shopping for extra sooner or later, that’s. We’d hope to purchase them as cheaply as potential and providing the perfect dividend yield.

Effectively, possibly we simply bought our want and a renewed shopping for alternative. By market shut on 7 April, the Lloyds share price had fallen 14% from its 52-week excessive.

And that pushed the forecast dividend yield up shut to five% once more. It’s at 4.9% on the time of writing on 8 April.

Tariff bother

The most recent fall was kicked off by President Trump’s tariffs, unleashed on 2 April. At first look, with Lloyds doing no enterprise within the US, we’d surprise why further US import fees would do it any hurt in any respect. In truth, the levies are on items solely, so monetary providers shouldn’t entice further prices straight.

The actual downside is that the financial fallout would possibly harm banking and finance basically. Lloyds could be solely UK-focused. But when we’re coming into a brand new world financial slowdown, individuals feeling the pinch can be much less prone to need new mortgages for brand spanking new houses… and so forth.

US Funding financial institution Goldman Sachs places the possibilities of a US recession at 45%, lifted from 35% every week beforehand. If it occurs, the remainder of the world actually can’t escape it.

What ought to we do?

Buyers need to make choices they’re snug with, and that can range. However there’s one factor that I undoubtedly don’t suppose anybody ought to do, and that’s panic. Panic promoting, nevertheless, is precisely what’s been occurring. And it’s pushed US inventory markets into their worst one-week falls because the pandemic.

When that occurs, it’s time for long-term buyers to contemplate shopping for, proper? I believe so. And I’m in good firm, as billionaire investor Warren Buffett recommends shopping for at these instances when “darkish clouds will fill the financial skies, and they’re going to briefly rain gold“.

That brings me again to Lloyds, however by itself deserves slightly than by way of market-led concern. And if it wasn’t for one factor, I’d be severely contemplating shopping for some extra.

Long run

That factor is the automotive mortgage mis-selling case at the moment in progress. And I’m actually 50/50 on how I believe it’d prove. I severely concern it might finish up costing greater than the £1,150m Lloyds has put aside for it. But when it goes higher, I would miss out on a shopping for alternative now.

That’s the dilemma we at all times face as long-term buyers when short-term issues occur. My method is sort of at all times to attend till the mud settles and make up my thoughts based mostly on a clearer outlook. And if I miss some extra-cheap buys, I can stay with that because it reduces my possibilities of shopping for a dud.

I’ll most likely purchase extra Lloyds shares a while sooner or later. Simply not now.