Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have at all times been a roller-coaster trip, however by no means extra so than as we speak. 

The corporate’s mercurial founder, Elon Musk, divides buyers like by no means earlier than. After his hook-up with Donald Trump, the hype was up to 11. Following this week’s tariff shock, it’s raced previous 12 or 13.

After final November’s presidential election, the Trump-Tesla tie-up excited buyers. By 18 December 2024, Tesla inventory had flown to a 52-week excessive of simply over $488. As I write, it’s plunged 45% to $267.

Can Elon Musk bounce again from this?

Somebody who invested £10,000 at that December peak can be sitting on a forty five% paper loss. Their funding can be value simply £5,500 now.

That stated, somebody who invested £10k on Tesla one 12 months in the past would nonetheless be up 56%, regardless of latest volatility. Their shares can be value £15,600. Which places the latest dip in perspective.

The large query is what occurs subsequent. China has simply hit again with a 34% tariff on American imports, sending markets into one other spiral. Tit-for-tat retaliation was inevitable, however it’s solely making a foul state of affairs worse. 

Musk might or might not have distanced himself from Trump, however whether or not he can ever restore his status amongst Tesla’s extra liberally minded clients is one other matter.

The anti-Tesla marketing campaign might collect tempo as tariffs chew. The outlook for the group’s electrical car (EV) enterprise seems to be tough, particularly as China and Europe are such key markets.

Many argue Tesla has moved past EVs and is now all about vitality storage, robotics, and self-driving automobiles. That could be true, however will it assist if the world decides it’s had sufficient of Musk?

Newest outcomes, revealed on 2 April, present gross sales have slumped to their lowest degree in three years. 

The corporate delivered nearly 337,000 automobiles within the first quarter of 2025, down 13% 12 months on 12 months. Competitors from Chinese language rival BYD is intensifying, however Musk’s polarising function within the Trump administration isn’t serving to. I can solely think about what Q2 gross sales will appear like.

Extremely risky development play

Regardless of the drop, Tesla stays eye-wateringly costly, with a price-to-earnings ratio of round 131. Hardly a cut price.

The 42 analysts monitoring the inventory have set a median one-year price goal of simply over $352. If right, that’s a hefty 32% soar from as we speak. 

Most of these forecasts are old-fashioned, although. Given Tesla’s fixed stream of utmost information, nothing will be relied upon.

For years, Tesla has been priced far past what its fundamentals justify, pushed by the cult of Musk. However now that cult is in peril of imploding. Possibly it’s time for buyers to stay to the numbers.

I’ve by no means owned Tesla shares, although I used to be briefly tempted to take a punt a number of days in the past. Musk is the mistaken man to put in writing off. If Trump softens his tariff stance, we may see the mom of all market recoveries with Tesla main the cost.

However anybody shopping for Tesla inventory as we speak has to simply accept the dangers are large and unattainable to fathom. Some have even known as for him to give up as CEO. Would that assist? Possibly, possibly not.

For a lot of, Musk is Tesla. However for buyers, that will now not be a superb factor. For my part, solely a pure gambler or true believer ought to contemplate shopping for Tesla shares as we speak.