If somebody provided to promote me one thing for 10 or 15 instances the price I might have paid for it only a few years in the past, I could really feel susceptible to being seen off. However that’s the type of return seen on Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) shares lately. Having been underneath 40p at its 2020 low, the Rolls-Royce share price this week hovered near the £6 mark.

However whereas which may be welcome information for long-term shareholders, what may it imply for an investor resembling myself, trying to find worth in at present’s market?

Probably additional to run

In truth, I feel the Rolls-Royce share price might probably go even increased from right here. For starters, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 whereas not precisely low-cost doesn’t look outrageous to me.

Different FTSE 100 companies have the next P/E ratio. Fellow engineer Spirax, for instance, trades on a P/E ratio of 28.

Rolls’ P/E ratio relies on previous earnings. However its potential earnings could also be stronger – probably a lot stronger. It’s nonetheless within the technique of present process a medium-term transformation programme. Demand for civil aviation engine gross sales and servicing is excessive.

Many Western governments are ramping up defence spending. In the meantime, Rolls’ nuclear enterprise could have giant gross sales potential, due to its line of small modular reactors.

I’m hesitant – and right here’s why

Nonetheless, though I see arguments as to why the Rolls-Royce share price might carry on transferring up, I even have some reservations. To start out with, the transformation programme stays a piece in progress. Rolls is a big, slow-moving and traditionally unpredictable enterprise when it comes to efficiency. Whether or not that may change completely and by how a lot stays to be seen.

If cost-cutting goes too far, there’s a danger of reputational harm. Airline clients pay a premium for Rolls’ engines as a result of they need whole peace of thoughts that their planes have high notch engineering underpinning each flight.

The nuclear enterprise might do very effectively, however individuals have been saying that about completely different nuclear companies for many years already – with very blended outcomes. I really feel this a part of Rolls’ operations nonetheless must show it may well add important long-term worth for the corporate.

In the meantime, within the core civil aviation engine enterprise, Rolls solely has a lot underneath its management. Traditionally, one of many greatest challenges has been unexpected exterior demand shocks for the airline trade, from terrorist assaults to volcanic clouds and the pandemic. Certainly, that explains why the Rolls-Royce share price was in pennies in 2020. The corporate was on its knees.

I see a danger that such occasions will occur once more in some unspecified time in the future in future – and there may be little or nothing that Rolls can do about it. I reckon the present share price doesn’t supply me a margin of security contemplating that danger. So though I reckon the share could transfer increased nonetheless from right here, I can’t be alongside for the trip as I’ve no plans to take a position.