Once I purchased sportswear and trainers specialist JD Sports activities Trend (LSE: JD) on 22 January, I believed it appeared like the perfect share to purchase for the yr forward.

This was an excellent development inventory that had been bombing alongside for years, however had simply bought off after a troublesome Christmas buying and selling interval. The board had issued a revenue warning, and this allowed me to seize it at a reduced price.

Then all I needed to do was sit again and watch for the cost-of-living disaster to ease. When the outlook brightened and buyers began splashing money on trainers once more, the JD Sports activities share price would race out of the blocks. That was my reasoning. It was incorrect.

As an alternative of being one of many best-performing shares on the FTSE 100 during the last 12 months, it’s turned out to be the very worst of all.

I referred to as JD Sports activities shares fully incorrect

JD shares have misplaced nearly half their worth in that point, plunging by 43.75%. That’s worse than B&M European Worth (down 34.39%) and Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group (down 36.77%). The truth that all three are within the retail sector tells us one thing.

Having purchased after the unique revenue warning and share price dip, I haven’t executed as badly as some. Personally, my stake in JD Sports activities is down 16.1%. It’s nonetheless not ideally suited.

I’m saying all this as a warning. I believe the 2025 outlook for JD Sports activities is far, a lot brighter, however I’ve been incorrect earlier than.

The group has been hit by forces largely past its management. ‘Higher for longer’ rates of interest, the patron slowdown, issues at key companion Nike, Price range hikes to employer’s Nationwide Insurance coverage, and now President-elect Donald Trump’s commerce tariff threats.

Its shares had been preventing again. However they slumped 15% on 21 November after the board was pressured to difficulty one other revenue warning. It blamed a unstable October, amid widespread discounting, milder climate and client warning forward of the US election.

I’m sticking by my upbeat forecast

With markets falling throughout the board after the US Federal Reserve warned it will gradual rate of interest cuts subsequent yr, there’s no respite.

But with a price-to-earnings ratio of precisely 8, I believe JD Sports activities shares look properly valued. And I’m clearly not the one one.

The 15 analysts providing one-year share price forecasts have produced a median goal of 157.34p. If right, that’s a rise of a thumping 63.01% from right this moment. Forecasts aren’t assured after all, however that fills me with Christmas cheer. JD Sports activities is probably not best possible FTSE 100 share for anybody to contemplate shopping for for 2025. However I believe it’s not far off.

I consider 2025 will probably be bumpy. Actually, I’ve been happy by the latest sell-off, because it skims off among the froth that constructed up after the ‘Trump bump’. Buyers will little question spend an excessive amount of time taking a look at rate of interest forecasts. However give right this moment’s gloom, even a modest three price cuts subsequent yr is likely to be properly obtained.

Even when I’m incorrect, at right this moment’s price, the JD sports activities share price seems like a screaming purchase for me. The one downside is that I’d purchase extra however I have already got an outsized stake in its fortunes.