MANILA/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Huddled within the presidential state of affairs room in February final yr, senior Philippines officers confronted a stark alternative.

Army and intelligence leaders watched as coast guard officers confirmed photographs of what the company stated was a military-grade laser that China had pointed at a Philippines ship in disputed waters days earlier.

Eduardo Ano, the nationwide safety adviser and chair of the South China Sea taskforce, needed to resolve whether or not to launch the images and danger Beijing’s ire, or chorus from aggravating his large neighbour.

“The public deserves to know,” the retired common informed the officers. “Publish the photographs.”

The beforehand undisclosed assembly marked a pivotal second, as Manila started a publicity blitz to focus on the intensifying territorial dispute within the South China Sea, the place the ramming of ships, use of water cannons and ensuing diplomatic protests have sharply raised tensions.

“It was a turning point and the birth of the transparency policy,” Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson Jonathan Malaya, who attended the assembly and recounted the change, informed Reuters. “The goal was to eventually impose severe costs to Beijing’s reputation, image and standing.”

Malaya stated President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had directed officers to “civilianise and internationalise” the dispute, which that they had achieved through the use of the coast guard and routinely embedding international journalists on missions. “This became an important component of building international support for the Philippines, because our audience is also foreign governments,” he added.

This account of the Philippines’ coverage change and its implications relies on interviews with 20 Philippine and Chinese language officers, regional diplomats and analysts. They stated publicising China’s actions, mixed with Manila’s deepened navy alliance with the U.S., had constrained Beijing’s capacity to escalate issues at sea however raised the dangers of Chinese language financial retaliation and U.S. involvement.

The February 2023 assembly occurred days after Marcos granted the U.S. entry to 4 extra navy bases within the Philippines, rekindling defence ties that had suffered below his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

“China has few escalatory options left without triggering the U.S.-Philippines mutual defence treaty and risking a military confrontation between Chinese and U.S. forces,” stated Ian Storey, a safety scholar at Singapore’s ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.

Marcos has additionally pursued a diplomatic offensive, gaining statements of assist for the Philippines’ place from international locations resembling Canada, Germany, India and Japan.

The South China Sea is wealthy in oil and gasoline. About $3 trillion in commerce passes via it yearly. U.S. entry to Philippine bases may show essential in a warfare over Taiwan.

China, whose claims to a lot of the sea had been invalidated by a global tribunal in 2016, says Philippine vessels illegally intrude into waters surrounding disputed shoals. It has warned Marcos, who took workplace in June 2022, in opposition to misjudging the state of affairs.

“This is brinkmanship, poker,” stated Philippine authorized scholar Jay Batongbacal. “Brinkmanship is taking things to the edge, trying to see who loses his nerve. Poker is a game of bluffing and deception – one could be doing both at the same time.”

In response to Reuters questions, China’s international ministry stated the Philippines had been stoking tensions with “provocative actions at sea in an attempt to infringe on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights”.

China, it stated, would defend its pursuits whereas dealing with the dispute peacefully via dialogue.

A U.S. State Division spokesperson stated Manila’s transparency initiative had succeeded in calling larger consideration to China’s “disregard for international law” and actions that endangered Philippine service members. 

The spokesperson wouldn’t touch upon the chance of U.S. navy involvement however stated the U.S. would assist the Philippines if it confronted financial coercion from China.

‘AWAKE AT NIGHT’

The battle is over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, the place the Philippine navy maintains a rusting warship, BRP (NASDAQ:) Sierra Madre, that it beached in 1999 to strengthen Manila’s sovereignty claims. A small crew is stationed on it.

Chinese language ships have sought to dam resupply missions, by encircling Philippine vessels and firing water cannons that in March shattered a ship’s windshield, injuring its crew. Manila launched footage of the incident; China stated it acted lawfully and professionally.

In February, Philippine ships recorded Chinese language counterparts putting a barrier throughout the doorway to Scarborough Shoal. This week, either side traded accusations over a collision involving their vessels close to Second Thomas Shoal.

Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela taunts Chinese language officers and state media on X, typically posting drone footage of maritime clashes. “If I were doing anything incorrect, I would have been shut down,” he stated.

Tarriela stated the transparency drive had labored, by galvanising assist for Manila whereas the edge of China’s aggression had not modified, regardless of a rise in incidents.

“They are still depending on their water cannon … they are still stuck with that kind of tactic,” he stated. 

The variety of Chinese language vessels round Second Thomas Shoal throughout Philippine resupply missions has grown from a single ship on common in 2021 to round 14 in 2023, the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research stated in January.

Final month, China’s coast guard got here inside metres of the Sierra Madre and seized provides air-dropped to troops stationed there, in accordance with Philippine officers. China, whose navy patrolled close by, stated Filipino troopers pointed weapons at its coast guard; Manila stated they only held their weapons.

Philippine officers say they concern a deadly accident may escalate into open hostilities.

“That keeps a lot of us awake at night,” the Philippines’ ambassador to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, informed Reuters. 

Manila additionally desires to keep away from the type of financial strain it confronted round a decade in the past, when protracted Chinese language customs checks triggered Philippine bananas to rot on Chinese language docks.

China was the Philippines’ second-biggest export market in 2023, taking almost $11 billion value or 14.8% of all its shipments. China is the Philippines’ prime supply of imports, primarily refined petroleum merchandise and electronics.

Romualdez stated Manila hoped China would “see the value of continuing our economic activity while trying to peacefully resolve the issue”.

Edcel John Ibarra, a political scientist on the College of the Philippines, stated Marcos dangers upsetting China into “a harder approach”, resembling non-tariff boundaries and tourism restrictions. He pointed to modifications China introduced in Might that enable its coast guard to detain foreigners with out trial for 60 days.

‘PARADIGM SHIFT’

The depth of Manila’s marketing campaign has shocked its neighbours. Vietnam and Malaysia, which even have maritime disputes with Beijing, have been extra cautious about what they launch from their skirmishes with China.

“We are all watching this and talking amongst ourselves,” stated one Asian diplomat, who was not authorised to be named. “The Philippines has carved out a new strategy in standing up to Beijing over a point of friction.”

Marcos stated in December that diplomacy with China had achieved little, calling on Southeast Asia “to come up with a paradigm shift”.

China’s state media have expressed irritation with the transparency push.

The Philippines has been “playing the victim to deceive international public opinions”, the state-backed World Instances stated in an op-ed in Might.

A key facet of Manila’s strategy has been solidifying the U.S. alliance. Each international locations made clear in Might final yr that their defence treaty additionally covers the coast guard. In April, Marcos participated in an unprecedented summit together with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts.

A U.S. official concerned in U.S.-China talks that month stated Chinese language officers have complained about these diplomatic breakthroughs behind closed doorways, including that Beijing was “feeling the squeeze”.

Some Chinese language students, like Zha Daojiong, at Peking College’s College of Worldwide Research, say the state of affairs is at an deadlock and that China will proceed to be “essentially reactive” at flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal.

“By responding to the Philippines’ action, I guess they want to keep the message that this shoal is in dispute,” he stated.

(This story has been refiled to right the identify of institute in paragraph 10)