Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) shares play a key position in my retirement plans. They’re one of many largest holdings in my self-invested private pension (SIPP), and once I first purchased in a few years in the past, I used to be feeling fairly happy with myself.

The FTSE 100 housebuilder supplied a fats dividend yield, the price seemed low cost. For some time, I assumed I’d nailed it. A terrific earnings play with progress potential thrown in. What’s to not like?

Sadly, the temper’s modified. The share price has slid from 135p to round 119p within the final 12 months, a drop of roughly 12%.

A troublesome time for the inventory

It was already on a downward drift earlier than Donald Trump began brandishing tariffs. There shares are decrease than they have been 5 years in the past, they usually weren’t precisely flying then.

The housebuilding sector has struggled since Brexit shook the foundations. Extra not too long ago, excessive rates of interest have made mortgages dearer, which has hit demand with affordability already stretched.

Rising prices, from supplies and labour to this month’s employer’s Nationwide Insurance coverage and minimal wage hikes, have piled additional strain on margins and can proceed to take action.

It’s irritating, however I’m not giving up. I’m primarily in it for the earnings, and that continues to impress. The trailing dividend yield is an eye catching 7.94%, with analysts forecasting a slight bump to eight.2% subsequent 12 months. Not explosive progress, but it surely’s constant and welcome.

Ready for the subsequent dividend

I robotically reinvest each penny and can decide up comparatively extra Taylor Wimpey inventory with its newest payout whereas the share price is low. The subsequent dividend lands in my SIPP on 9 Could. I’m wanting ahead to it.

The dividend remains to be backed by wholesome money reserves. The corporate ended 2024 with web money of £565m, comfortably forward of its personal steering. That monetary power offers me confidence.

Completions dipped from 10,848 to 10,593 and common promoting costs dipped too. But the board reviews robust curiosity in early 2025, and its ahead order ebook is bigger than a 12 months in the past.

Taylor Wimpey isn’t the most affordable inventory in the marketplace, buying and selling at round 14 occasions earnings, but it surely’s not costly both.

Promising progress outlook

The 16 analysts overlaying this inventory have set a median 12-month share price forecast of 145.6p. If appropriate, that may imply a 22% enhance from the place the inventory trades now. Throw within the near-8% yield, and the overall return may hit 30% in only one 12 months. That might flip a £10,000 stake into round £13,000. Proper now, I’d be thrilled with that. We’ll see although.

Forecasts aren’t guarantees. Particularly in unstable occasions like these. Many may have been made earlier than the most recent uncertainty, however the optimistic sentiment is putting. Out of 18 analyst scores, 11 have Taylor Wimpey down as a Robust Purchase, two as a Purchase, and 5 counsel Maintain. Not one is recommending a promote.

I gained’t be promoting both. I’ll preserve reinvesting my dividends and preserve constructing my place. Sooner or later, the financial clouds ought to raise, and I’m hoping Taylor Wimpey shares will lastly present their value. And I’m going to present it loads longer than a 12 months to come back good.