After a reasonably unstable few weeks for inventory markets around the globe, the FTSE 250 is now buying and selling barely down for the yr to this point. As disappointing as that is, it’s nothing in comparison with the shockingly poor efficiency of a few of its members.

Right now, I’m one heavy faller particularly and asking whether or not it now presents as a doubtlessly canny contrarian purchase.

Massive loser

The inventory in query is on-line journey platform and ticket vendor Trainline (LSE: TRN). Regardless of having fun with a major leap in price in direction of the tip of 2024, the mid-cap’s worth has plunged over 30% in 2025, thus far.

That may appear odd primarily based on the corporate’s most up-to-date buying and selling assertion. Again on 13 March, Trainline revealed an 11% year-on-year rise in income to £442m. Whole web ticket gross sales additionally climbed 12% to £5.9bn.

The difficulty was that each numbers have been decrease than some analysts have been anticipating and the market was in an unforgiving temper.

Is the sell-off overdone?

Now, such a major tumble within the share price is certain to get worth hunters sniffing round. And I can see why many is likely to be drawn to Trainline.

Certain, the aforementioned figures did not impress on the day. However they did fall throughout the firm’s beforehand upgraded steerage vary. So does the current information stream warrant such a steep decline?

That is earlier than we’ve even thought-about the robust chance that digital tickets are solely prone to grow to be more and more well-liked going ahead. With 18 million prospects already, the agency’s ongoing growth into Europe may additionally assist the shares get well in time.

There’s one other factor I’ve observed.

Whereas there’s some curiosity within the inventory from brief sellers — these betting the share price has additional to fall — that is pretty insignificant in comparison with different FTSE 250 shares similar to on-line grocer Ocado and pizza supply agency Domino’s Pizza. Put one other method, it doesn’t appear most merchants have severe considerations concerning the earnings outlook.

However may this be set to alter?

Elevated competitors

A lingering concern is what affect a state-backed ticketing platform (run by the proposed ‘Great British Railways’ governing physique) may have on Trainline’s income within the UK. As issues stand, nothing’s anticipated to be launched till the tip of 2026 on the earliest. Nevertheless, buyers won’t be keen to attend round to search out out.

The corporate’s aforementioned progress plans may additionally come a cropper if the journey trade encounters headwinds, even simply because of decreased client spending. One other excessive occasion like a pandemic? I actually hope not. It will possibly’t be dominated out although.

At 14 instances forecast FY26 earnings, the inventory isn’t all that low-cost relative to the Client Cyclicals sector or the broader UK market both. Nevertheless, I do settle for that it’s lots decrease than it as soon as was.

One very last thing to pay attention to is the dearth of dividends. Certain, that is to be anticipated from a growth-focused firm. Even so, it does imply that buyers gained’t be compensated if the inventory strikes sideways from right here, or continues falling.

All issues thought-about, Trainline’s an fascinating funding proposition. However I’m unsure it may be thought-about an unmissable cut price.

I’m comfortable to take a seat this one out.