Over the previous 12 months, the GSK (LSE: GSK) share price has lagged behind the FTSE 100, falling 14% versus the Footsie’s acquire of 14.9%. This leaves the inventory languishing at #91 amongst Footsie members over 12 months.

On Friday (14 February), this inventory closed at 1,432.5p, valuing the biopharma large at £59.4bn. Since Valentine’s Day 2024, the shares have moved between a 52-week of 1,823.5p (set in Might) and a 52-week low of 1,282.5p in November. Proper now, they lie in direction of the decrease finish of this vary.

Notably, this lack of price momentum and course has continued for years. This inventory is down 15.9% over 5 years, a interval throughout which the FTSE 100 has climbed by 17.9%. Moreover, the chart of the share price over the previous decade carefully resembles the enamel of a noticed — zigzagging up and down in a variety between £12 and £18.

We have been huge on this one

In brief, the GSK share price has disillusioned shareholders for years. I do know, as I’ve a tiny holding on this enterprise, whereas my spouse has a extra significant stake. For many years, GSK was my household’s largest shareholding, as a result of my spouse labored for this agency for 31 years. However on departing in April 2021, she bought virtually all her shares. This was very profitable, as a result of her firm agreed to pay all taxes on these gross sales, thus saving her massive sums.

Betting the price will fall

On Friday, I noticed a breaking story within the Monetary Occasions, which revealed that hedge fund Citadel — run by US billionaire Kenneth C Griffin — has wager huge on this FTSE 100 heading south.

Ken Griffin is one investor to be reckoned with. He has a web value of round $44bn, whereas Citadel itself managed $65bn of property at end-2024. Final 12 months, this fund returned 15.1%, versus 23.3% for the US S&P 500 index.

Citadel revealed it has taken a £305m brief place in opposition to GSK. This rises in worth because the share price falls. That is the largest wager in opposition to this enterprise since 2013. Below UK guidelines, brief bets exceeding 0.5% of an organization’s market worth should be disclosed. At 0.51%, this brief barely exceeds this stage.

Might Citadel be mistaken?

I’d be reluctant to wager in opposition to Ken Griffin and his mighty Citadel. Nonetheless, I consider there should be extra appropriate shares on the market to wager in opposition to.

For instance, the GSK share price has jumped by 10.7% since 14 January. Additionally, GSK shares commerce on a ahead price-earnings ratio under 9.1, delivering a future earnings yield of 11%. Therefore, the dividend yield of 4.3% a 12 months is roofed a wholesome 2.6 occasions by earnings. To me, these don’t resemble the basics of an organization in disaster so GSK should still be value contemplating.

What’s extra, in its newest outcomes launched on 4 February, the group raised its long-term gross sales forecast and unveiled a £2bn share buyback lasting 18 months. That stated, whereas gross sales of HIV and most cancers therapies are robust, GSK’s late-stage pipeline of recent medication and vaccines wants a lift. Additionally, the agency faces an ‘earnings cliff’ three years from now, when HIV patents start expiring.

As for me, my GSK holding will keep put for now. Nevertheless, I might be paying shut consideration to all the corporate’s bulletins throughout 2025!