The Glencore (LSE: GLEN) share price has had a torrid time as of late. To date this 12 months it’s misplaced 1 / 4 of its worth and is down 40% in a 12 months. Tariffs is perhaps hitting international inventory markets, however I feel most traders are lacking a trick right here as tariffs are more likely to be very helpful to this commodities dealer.

Copper costs surging

Final Monday (31 March) copper costs within the US surged to an all-time excessive. In 2025, the price of the purple metallic within the US is up 25%. Nonetheless, on the London Metals Trade (LME) costs are up lower than half that quantity.

Costs within the US and on the LME virtually at all times transfer in lockstep. The explanation for the distinction is that US producers and suppliers are pre-empting import taxes from the US administration and are shifting to shore up their provides.

What is going on right here has all of the hallmarks of what has been unfolding with gold not too long ago. Consumers determined for the bodily stuff have been raiding London and New York vaults.

Arbitrage alternatives

This sort of dislocation in markets is what Glencore thrives on. It has an unparalleled advertising and marketing division that is ready to revenue from volatility in commodity costs.

The price discrepancy for copper in several geographic places is creating vital arbitrage alternatives for the enterprise, upon which it is ready to generate a payment.

The truth is, I imagine that tariffs, the specter of future tariffs, and the potential of all-out international commerce struggle might not be good for long-term international progress, however within the quick time period they’re more likely to transform very worthwhile for its advertising and marketing division. And it simply doesn’t commerce copper, however a basket of commodities.

Copper deficit coming

I stay firmly satisfied {that a} copper deficit is coming sooner or later and might solely result in one factor: considerably larger costs.

Copper is used within the producer of nearly any product one can consider, together with cell phones, conventional vehicles, and building. However demand can also be coming from new aspects of the financial system akin to renewables, EVs, electrical energy grid infrastructure growth, knowledge centres, and AI.

Glencore estimates that offer wants to extend by about 1m metric tonnes a 12 months out to 2050 to satisfy the surge in anticipated demand. Given the quantity of recognized copper reserves from current mines, a requirement shortfall is a given.

Dangers

The enterprise made a lack of £1.6bn in 2024. An enormous chunk of this was down to file low therapy and refining fees for copper and zinc concentrates, hitting its smelting operations.

This stays an ongoing difficulty. The miner is now within the strategy of shutting a good portion of its smelting operations throughout the globe, in an effort to stem the losses.

Nonetheless, I nonetheless imagine that Glencore represents among the finest alternatives within the FTSE 100. The interior mechanics of its advertising and marketing division could also be a carefully guarded secret, however it has a historical past of changing into a money cow in durations of heightened commodity volatility. One solely has to have a look at 2022 for proof of that. Its share price might fall additional, however I intend so as to add to my place as quickly as my funds enable.