No FTSE 250 share has the cachet of Aston Martin Lagonda (LSE: AML), however none has fared worse during the last yr. The James Bond automotive maker is the poorest performer on your entire index, crashing 50.7%. Cachet isn’t every part.

Aston Martin has a world-class model and makes world-class sports activities automobiles, however its share price is a little bit of a banger. Over 5 years, it’s down 97.64%, having lurched from one disaster to a different. But hope springs everlasting and the inventory’s up 10.88% during the last month.

Is that this a shopping for alternative or yet one more false daybreak?

Full-year 2023 outcomes weren’t as grim as I anticipated. Revenues grew 18% to £1.633bn with a report common promoting price of £188,000. Gross margins accelerated by 650bps to 39.1%, inside a whisker of hitting its long-term goal of 40%.

Restoration play (once more)

But beneath the bonnet there have been disappointments, with underlying money revenue margins of 18.7% coming in under the anticipated 20%. Inflation didn’t assist, pushing up prices. Aston Martin continues to lose cash, yr after yr. Nevertheless, key metrics are pointing the suitable manner, as my easy desk exhibits.

Govt chairman Lawrence Stroll has made it clear that Aston Martin’s “iconic global brand” is “critical” to its long-term success within the luxurious market. It’s most likely the one factor that has stored it afloat throughout a turbulent century, that noticed it survive seven bankruptcies.

It clearly is smart to drive the model as far upmarket as it will probably go. As FTSE 100 luxurious clothes retailer Burberry Group has found to its price, mere aspiration isn’t sufficient today. However the advertising and marketing spend weighs arduous on margins.

Aston Martin made a disappointing begin to 2024, with revenues down 10% and wholesale volumes falling 26%. It places a constructive spin on that, saying the launch of 4 new fashions ought to ship “significant growth” within the second half, permitting it to retain full-year earnings and profitability steerage. It nonetheless expects to hit that 40% margins goal.

Lower-price inventory

But it may have accomplished with out that setback, as dealer Jefferies identified, noting the group “continues to test investor patience”.

Jefferies lower its goal price from 275p to 250p, however that’s nonetheless properly above at this time’s 159p. Lower by way of the headline numbers and there are indicators of hope. A lot now depends upon what Stroll calls this yr’s “immense product transformation”.

Aston Martin does seem to have a brighter future, but it surely must ramp up manufacturing, and up to date figures counsel it might wrestle to try this.

Specials volumes are promising, particularly in the event that they’re funded by prospects paying an advance deposit, which helps management working capital. Past that, Aston Martin nonetheless faces the long-term problem of shifting into electrical, or getting left behind.

If there was ever a time to purchase Aston Martin shares, this appears to be like prefer it. The one query is whether or not I’m courageous sufficient to take action, because it’s nonetheless so dangerous. I received’t know for positive till I click on ‘buy’.