BT (LSE: BT.A) shares have smashed the FTSE 100 over the previous 12 months, climbing a staggering 60%.  It hurts me to put in writing that, as a result of I flagged the telecoms large a number of instances final 12 months as a restoration play to contemplate.

Sadly, I failed so as to add it to my very own Self-Invested Private Pension (SIPP). That oversight’s been a pricey one.

On the time, BT shares seemed low cost as chips, buying and selling at round six instances earnings whereas providing a dividend yield north of 6%. 

Can this worth inventory proceed to win?

BT has continued to do properly in 2025. An funding of £10,000 when markets opened in January would now be seeing a 15.5% acquire at this time, with that stake now value £11,550. That’s an additional £1,550 in slightly below 4 months. So can it proceed to flourish?

Encouragingly, the BT share price stil doesn’t look overly costly, buying and selling at round 9 instances earnings. So there’s potential worth right here.

The yield has slipped to 4.75%, however that’s purely as a result of the share price has raced forward. Analysts reckon it might edge again up to 4.86% this 12 months and 4.95% in 2026, because the board hikes dividends. That’s nonetheless respectable.

The consensus one-year share price goal from 15 brokers is 192.2p. That’s a 13% premium to at this time’s 169.4p. Mixed with dividends, that means a possible complete 12-month return approaching 18%. That’s clearly a extra pedestrian tempo than final 12 months’s fireworks, however not too shabby. Clearly, forecasts can’t be relied upon, however this one displays how I view the outlook.

There are nonetheless causes to tread rigorously. BT carries a hefty £20bn web debt, and with rates of interest nonetheless excessive servicing that’s pricey. Plus it additionally has that burdensome pension scheme.

Competitors additionally stays fierce as BT faces rivals reminiscent of Virgin Media O2, Vodafone and Sky throughout broadband, cell and TV. 

In the meantime, its Openreach full-fibre broadband roll-out has made nice positive aspects. In Q3, BT added a web 472,000 fibre clients and now boasts a 35% take-up charge. Nevertheless, conserving clients loyal is a continuing battle, as complete broadband traces fell by 208,000 over the quarter.

Dividends, development and hope

That mentioned, BT’s made spectacular strides beneath new boss Allison Kirkby. Many have been sceptical as she turned the most recent CEO to announce a gaggle overhaul, however she’s quietly defied expectations. 

Her push to focus BT on the UK seems more and more prescient as firms worldwide reassess the dangers of sprawling world operations, amid commerce considerations. 

Progress is clearly seen. Shopper service income returned to development in Q3. Price financial savings helped push adjusted EBITDA up 4% to £2.1bn.

Kirkby’s steadied a leaky and directionless ship, and BT shares might nonetheless have additional to go. Nevertheless, debt and pension challenges stay and it feels to me as if the massive positive aspects have now been made. Though I mentioned that at first of 2025, and the shares have defied world inventory market volatility to climb steadily.

However I gained’t purchase BT shares. It looks like I missed my probability a 12 months in the past. As an alternative, I’ll hunt for the subsequent massive FTSE 100 restoration play, somewhat than the final one. And this time I’ll put my cash the place my mouth is.